After successive slaughters in the late '90s and early 2000s, Missouri Democrats lost the House in 2002 and have been scrambling to recover over the last two cycles.

Cultural wedge issues and population shifts have helped produce Democratic wins in suburban seats, but also placed most rural districts completely out of their reach. To win back the House, Democrats will need to find winners in the outer suburbs. These districts may well decide which party controls the House throughout the 2010s. In this respect House 98 might be the best barometer of the Democrats' chances to take back the House during the next decade.

This seat was last open in November 2002 when Rep. Brian Nieves won it with 54 percent of the vote. But now Nieves is term limited (and running for state Senate) and the seat is back in play. It's on both Republican and Democratic target lists.

Nieves hailed from the right-wing of the Republican Party, but the district is very competitive. The Democratic Performance Index, a measurement of how an area generally votes, is 49.6 percent. In other words it splits almost perfectly between Republicans and Democrats.

But Democrats note that the DPI doesn't yet include the 2008 election. And the district's main cities - Union and St. Clair - are along the Interstate 44 corridor. Democrats say the district is trending in their direction as the newly registered voters are coming from their strongholds of St. Louis City and St. Louis County. It may now tilt ever so slightly Democratic.

Republicans have a healthy primary on their hands. Four candidates have started campaign committee. Two of them have experience in local politics. And top Republicans express confidence that either will be able to hold the seat for them. Dave Hinson, from St. Clair, has been on the ambulance board and the school board. Paul Arand is an alderman from Union. Arand's considered the favorite because of his community involvement (president of Union Rotary Club, past president Mary Jo Straatmann of Union Chamber, owns the local movie theater).

Meanwhile Mary Jo Straatmann is the only Democratic candidate. That's good news for her. Better still is that Gov. Nixon and the Democratic Party have pledged to raise money for this race. They're also providing the staff to run the campaign. But because, unlike the House Republican Campaign Committee, they've been keeping their candidates away from the press, she's still relatively unknown.
With the sides evenly matched, the contest made be decided by message. Message is worth about 5 percent in most campaigns. Both potential Republican nominees Arand and Hinson will hew to the mainstream Republican message of lower taxes, pro-gun and anti-abortion.

Here's where the Democrats may stumble. And not only in House 98, but in similar districts across the state.

Democrats have yet to articulate a message to appeal to these voters. Even Nixon's successful campaign for governor did not quite flesh out a message, besides the promise to restore health care cuts. But by running against Blunt, he didn't really need one. Straatmann does.

Can she give voters a clear understanding of the ways government can make life better? Can such a message overcome the well-tested Republican message of less government? The answer to these questions will determine if the Democrats can win House 98, and ultimately the Missouri House of Representatives.

Dave Brebes is publisher of the Missouri Scout, www.moscout.com, a private news service covering state politics.